Do You Know that I Know that You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract We implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic expectations. The provides novel set stylized facts regarding the relationship between first-order and expectations economic agents, including how they adjust beliefs in response to variety information treatments. show these can be used calibrate key parameters noisy-information models with infinite regress as well test predictions made by this class models. also consider range extensions basic model that potentially better reconcile theory empirics. Although some like level-k thinking are unsuccessful, incorporating heterogeneous long-run priors address empirical shortcomings model.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Quarterly Journal of Economics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0033-5533', '1531-4650']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab005